The current focal point of the Ukraine war is not in the airspace above Kyiv or Dnipro, where there has been a notable increase in Russian drone strikes in recent days.
The slow and arduous advancements of the Russian army on the harsh frontlines of eastern Ukraine are not indicative of how the conflict, now entering its third year, will ultimately be resolved.
The pivotal struggle unfolding among the conflicting factions and their supporters centres on capturing the attention of US President Donald Trump, who appears to be growing more exasperated with attempts to negotiate peace.
The anticipated phone call between him and Russian President Vladimir Putin later today is poised to hold significant importance.
Moscow and Kyiv are engaged in a strategic battle to portray each other as the primary impediment to peace, aiming to influence Trump’s fluctuating views, at least temporarily, in their favour.
European officials have indicated that they plan to engage in discussions with Trump prior to his scheduled call with Putin. This comes amid rising concerns that Trump’s perspective on the ongoing conflict could be influenced by the last person he consults.
In a notable development last month, following a conversation with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky at Pope Francis’ funeral, Trump issued pointed criticisms of Putin. He condemned the Russian leader for the missile attack on Kyiv and expressed uncertainty regarding Putin’s intentions to conclude the conflict.
During Monday’s call, Putin will have the opportunity to speak directly with the president. Having rejected President Trump’s proposal of a 30-day ceasefire and accepted Ukraine’s, Putin has the ability to inject various business incentives, flattery, or even manipulation that Putin deems most effective.
Trump and Putin appear to possess a steadfast belief that they alone hold the personal authority and expertise necessary to resolve the conflict in Ukraine, suggesting that both European leaders and Ukrainians will ultimately follow their directives.
Disappointing discussions took place in Istanbul last week, marking the first direct engagement between Russian and Ukrainian negotiators in years. These talks highlight President Trump’s perception of his own pivotal role in facilitating a resolution. He has been prompted to reengage in peace efforts by directly contacting Putin despite recently having indicated a willingness to withdraw from these discussions.
Concerns are mounting in Ukraine that the two leaders may devise a peace plan during a phone call with President Trump, who has indicated he will subsequently reach out to Ukrainian President Zelensky. This scenario raises the possibility of Putin’s terms being imposed, accompanied by a renewed threat of cutting off essential US military and economic assistance.
President Trump possesses leverage over Russia, should he decide to utilise it. As casualties rise and the economy falters, the Kremlin is keenly aware of the potential repercussions of alienating a frustrated Trump, who could be motivated to reinstate and even amplify US support for Ukraine’s military endeavors.
The ongoing issue persists, with both Russia and Ukraine showing an unwillingness to accept each other’s minimum terms, making it difficult for either side to find a satisfactory compromise.
However, this does not imply that discussions, whether conducted in person or over the phone, lack significance. The situation underscores the significant divide between the two parties involved.
However, this could indicate that, despite pressure from the United States and a direct phone call with President Trump, both Moscow and Kyiv might still opt to continue their conflict.
