The 50-day pause announced by US President Donald Trump regarding potential secondary sanctions on Russia provides the Kremlin with an opportunity to capitalize on the incremental advancements made in recent weeks. Analysts warn that these developments are placing critical Ukrainian strongholds in the eastern region at greater risk.
Reports indicate that Russia may be on the brink of launching a significant summer offensive, potentially leveraging the 160,000 troops that Ukrainian officials claim are gathering near the front lines. In recent weeks, Russia has achieved modest yet significant progress, strategically positioning its forces to potentially encircle Ukrainian troops in three critical towns: Pokrovsk, Kostyantynivka, and Kupiansk, along the eastern front line.
The Kremlin seemed unfazed by the latest deadline set by Trump. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov commented on Tuesday, “Fifty days – it used to be 24 hours; it used to be 100 days; we’ve been through all of this.”
Experts indicated that the revised timeline is promising for the objectives of Russian President Vladimir Putin. On Tuesday, Keir Giles of Chatham House reported that it also created an opportunity for Moscow to engage diplomatically. “The 50-day deadline provides Russia with ample opportunity to devise its alternative strategy, potentially allowing it to outmanoeuvre Washington once more through a diplomatic manoeuvre that Trump might readily embrace…” The recent extension of deadlines by Trump regarding Putin has prolonged Ukraine’s suffering for yet another arbitrary duration.
John Lough, who leads foreign policy at the New Eurasian Strategies Centre think tank, indicated that the summer offensive has likely been in progress for several months. He noted that “the Russians are undoubtedly intensifying their efforts, both on the ground and in the air.” The recent aerial onslaught against Ukraine’s cities may indicate Moscow’s sluggish advancement on the front lines, with the intent to “demoralize the population and zap its will to fight,” according to his statement.
“For several months, Putin has expressed considerable confidence regarding the progress of this campaign, acknowledging that the Ukrainians are lacking in manpower and certain weapons systems,” Lough stated, noting that Moscow aims to stretch the Ukrainian defence too thin. “Expect to witness a continuation of that trend over the next 50 days, at the very least.”
The gradual progress achieved by Moscow in the vicinity of these three towns has incurred substantial expenses. Recent mapping efforts by DeepState, a Ukrainian monitoring service, along with reports from the region, indicate that Russian forces are making progress in their attempt to encircle all three fronts.
Over the last 72 hours, Russian troops have advanced towards Rodynske, a crucial settlement located to the northeast of Pokrovsk, which has been under siege by Moscow for several months.
The advance aligns with Pokrovsk’s west, where Russian troops are currently manoeuvring to encircle the village of Udachne. This strategic positioning enhances their ability to disrupt supply routes into Pokrovsk more effectively.
A Ukrainian commander known as Musician, who heads a drone company within the 38th Marine Brigade, has been active in the vicinity of Pokrovsk since October. A source informed CNN that the Russian offensive has been in progress for a considerable period. “It likely has not hit its highest point yet,” he stated, “but they have been making progress for a while and are doing so with considerable success.”
The Musician emphasized that the defence of Rodynske was crucial. “The adversary is aware of this and is relying on it.” The advancement from Rodynske could lead to a critical situation. There are a couple of routes available that could be seized, leading to a disruption in logistics. The decision made by the opposing side is a calculated one.
He emphasized the urgent need for reinforcements in the area, warning that without them, there could be a risk of a repeat of the encirclement and retreat witnessed in early 2024 near the town of Avdiivka, located east of Pokrovsk. Ukrainian forces maintained their position in Avdiivka for several months, ultimately succumbing to a shortage of personnel and resources necessary to sustain control over the area. This defeat has come to represent not only Kyiv’s resilience but also Moscow’s unwavering willingness to endure significant casualties in pursuit of territorial gains.
Ukrainian military blogger Bohdan Miroshnikov has stated that the capture of Rodynske would finalize the encirclement of the entire left flank surrounding Pokrovsk. He also expressed similarly grim evaluations regarding the right flank and southern positions. “Should the current situation persist, the available options will dwindle significantly…” Our garrison faces a critical juncture: it may either be compelled to retreat due to the looming threat of encirclement, or it will engage in intense combat within a semi-encirclement, with uncertain outcomes ahead.
The Russian military Telegram channel “Voennaya Khronika,” translating to “military chronicle,” reported that the objective is for Pokrovsk to meet the same fate as Avdiivka and Bakhmut, emphasizing a strategy of “successive flank isolation, pressure on supply lines, and frontal stagnation following strategic exhaustion.”
DeepState’s mapping indicates significant advances towards Kostyantynivka, a crucial hub in the eastern region. Over the past two weeks, Russian forces have rapidly approached the area from both the southeast and southwest, leading to a relentless barrage of attack drones targeting the location.
Ukrainian blogger and serviceman Stanislav Buniatov, known by the call sign Osman, reported that recent advances are pushing Moscow’s forces deeper into the Dnipropetrovsk region, an area that was not initially included in Putin’s territorial ambitions. Osman reported that the ongoing daily clashes destroy “70-90% of the enemy’s personnel and equipment.” However, he noted that the enemy continues to advance, a situation that is widely understood.
On Wednesday, DeepState reported that misleading communications from Ukrainian commanders to their superiors were undermining their defence efforts. “A significant factor contributing to the enemy’s success lies in the misinformation disseminated through field reports regarding the actual state of affairs. This distortion complicates the assessment of risks and hampers the ability to respond effectively to evolving situations from higher command. The implications of this issue are profound and potentially disastrous.” “Deception has the potential to lead to our downfall.” The article highlighted the region south of Pokrovsk as particularly vulnerable to this internal issue within Ukraine.
Russian forces have made modest gains to the north of Kupiansk, presenting yet another challenge to Kyiv’s frequently overextended military resources. Moscow’s progress since June 23 from Holubivka has resulted in its control over a crucial access road to the north of Kupiansk, specifically near the settlement of Radkivka.
Kupiansk serves as a pivotal town located to the east of Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city. Maintaining control over Kupiansk is crucial for securing the safety of Kharkiv, which is home to approximately one million residents.
